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2006 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2006 Issue 1

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2006 Issue 1
OECD's twice-yearly assessment of the major economic trends and policies in member countries and selected non-members. This issue covers the outlook to the end of 2007.  Together with a wide range of cross-country statistics, the Outlook provides a unique tool to keep abreast of world economic developments. This issue also contains a special chapter on Future Budget Pressures Arising from Spending on Health and Long-Term Care.

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Russian Federation

Real GDP growth is projected at 6.2% in 2006 and 5.7% in 2007. This gradual moderating of growth rates will primarily reflect emerging capacity constraints. Consumption growth will remain robust, sustained by high revenues from commodity exports and further improvements in the terms of trade. While the stabilisation fund is likely to capture -- and thus neutralise -- the bulk of windfall revenues, a significant share of commodity windfalls will still feed into domestic demand. Disinflation will therefore remain difficult. Maintaining fiscal discipline will be critical if the authorities are to rein in inflation while limiting the speed of exchange-rate appreciation. The recent decision to put off consideration of a large cut in indirect taxation until 2009 is thus a welcome development. However, more needs to be done to strengthen the legislative framework governing the stabilisation fund and to insulate not only the budget but the economy as a whole from fluctuations in commodity prices.

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