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2006 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2006 Issue 1

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2006 Issue 1
OECD's twice-yearly assessment of the major economic trends and policies in member countries and selected non-members. This issue covers the outlook to the end of 2007.  Together with a wide range of cross-country statistics, the Outlook provides a unique tool to keep abreast of world economic developments. This issue also contains a special chapter on Future Budget Pressures Arising from Spending on Health and Long-Term Care.

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Portugal

The Portuguese economy grew by only 0.3% in 2005. With buoyant export markets, a recovery in exports and GDP is expected in 2006 and growth should reach 1½ per cent in 2007. The large negative output gap should allow a decline in price inflation towards the euro area average; and high unemployment is projected to lead to moderation in wage growth, which will help to improve Portugal’s competitiveness. The high level of the fiscal deficit means that it is crucial to sustain on-going consolidation efforts. Besides tax increases and current measures to control the public sector wage bill in the short term, decisive action should continue to better control primary spending. Further efforts to raise Portugal’s human capital, modernise the economy and increase competition are essential for a return to sustained economic growth.

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