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2006 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2006 Issue 1

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2006 Issue 1
OECD's twice-yearly assessment of the major economic trends and policies in member countries and selected non-members. This issue covers the outlook to the end of 2007.  Together with a wide range of cross-country statistics, the Outlook provides a unique tool to keep abreast of world economic developments. This issue also contains a special chapter on Future Budget Pressures Arising from Spending on Health and Long-Term Care.

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Norway

Mainland Norway has been growing above potential for almost three years. Growth is projected to slow to 3¼ per cent in 2006 and decline somewhat further in 2007 in response to a slowing in petroleum sector investment. With the output gap nonetheless remaining positive, inflationary pressures are likely to build up. In the current period of robust growth and fast rising oil export receipts, a tighter fiscal stance is required. This should lead to a lesser utilisation of oil revenues by the government, in line with the symmetry requirement of the fiscal rule. Barring adverse variation in the exchange rate, a rapidly disappearing slack calls for a return to a more neutral monetary stance.

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