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2006 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2006 Issue 1

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2006 Issue 1
OECD's twice-yearly assessment of the major economic trends and policies in member countries and selected non-members. This issue covers the outlook to the end of 2007.  Together with a wide range of cross-country statistics, the Outlook provides a unique tool to keep abreast of world economic developments. This issue also contains a special chapter on Future Budget Pressures Arising from Spending on Health and Long-Term Care.

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New Zealand

Activity is projected to pick up gradually as the economy responds to the sizeable exchange rate depreciation by switching to tradeables production. But the lower exchange rate along with fiscal stimulus will slow the dissipation of inflationary pressures as output falls below potential. Investment is projected to fall further before levelling out, while employment is expected to remain flat and unemployment to rise. Significant monetary easing from the second half of this year onwards should underpin the recovery, although the economy will still have spare capacity at the end of the projection period. Judgements around the timing and speed of interest rate cuts may be difficult: easing either too early or too late could carry significant costs.

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