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2005 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2005 Issue 2

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2005 Issue 2
Twice a year, the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major trends and examines the economic policies required to foster high and sustainable growth in member countries. Developments in major non-OECD economies are also evaluated. The present issue covers the outlook to end-2007. Together with a wide range of cross-country statistics, the Outlook provides a unique tool to keep abreast of world economic developments.  In addition to the themes featured regularly, this issue contains an analytical chapter addressing the recent run-up in house prices.

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Portugal

The Portuguese economy started to recover in the first half of 2005 driven by exports and private consumption. Real GDP growth is expected to gain momentum in 2006 and 2007 but is likely to lag the average growth in the euro area, with the economy still operating well below its potential.

Fiscal consolidation remains the key policy challenge. After a major slippage in 2005 due to strong social expenditure and the cancellation of all one-off measures, the deficit is expected to narrow somewhat over the projection period as a result of higher tax rates, spending freezes and more in-depth reforms on the expenditure side.

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