OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2005 Issue 2
Twice a year, the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major trends and examines the economic policies required to foster high and sustainable growth in member countries. Developments in major non-OECD economies are also evaluated. The present issue covers the outlook to end-2007. Together with a wide range of cross-country statistics, the Outlook provides a unique tool to keep abreast of world economic developments. In addition to the themes featured regularly, this issue contains an analytical chapter addressing the recent run-up in house prices.
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Ireland
Output is projected to grow at a steady 5% rate over the entire projection period. Robust household
income gains and government spending will be the engines of growth. Net exports are projected to
taper off as rising unit labour costs hold back exports. With strong activity exerting inflationary
pressures, core inflation is projected to creep up over the projection period.
More intense competition is needed to provide a countervailing force to inflationary pressures in the short-term and boost growth prospects in the long term. The proposal to repeal the Groceries Order (a regulation hampering competition in retail trade) is welcome in this regard, and deregulatory efforts should be broadened to other sheltered sectors starting with the professions and network industries. A tighter fiscal stance would help to contain inflationary pressures and provide a buffer against adverse shocks from the housing market or the exchange rate.
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