Strong growth has resumed after a brief pause last autumn. The export sector is projected to remain robust, with business investment playing an increasing role. Household consumption will be supported by low interest rates, rising house prices and tax cuts. The continuing expansion should eventually deliver the long-awaited improvement in the job market. Inflation has been surprisingly low recently, but is likely to pick up as the impact of various temporary factors abates and spare capacity is used up.

Fiscal policy has been pushed off track by the expansionary measures in the recent autumn’s budget. The government will need to tighten policy again in order to achieve its target for the budget surplus. Meanwhile, the central bank can afford to keep interest rates on hold for some time yet, but it will need to raise interest rates as the output gap shrinks.