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2005 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2005 Issue 1

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2005 Issue 1

Presents OECD's assessment of the economic outlook to the end of 2006 for the OECD area and China, Brazil, and the Russian Federation.  It finds that Japan and the US have rebounded but that Europe is lacking in sustained momentum, and it carefully examines why. This issue of the OECD Economic Outlook also includes several medium-term scenarios projecting to 2010. The special chapter covers measuring and assessing underlying inflation.

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Portugal

The Portuguese economy fell back into recession in the second half of 2004. while activity is expected to recover gradually in the course of 2005, and gain momentum in 2006, the negative output gap could remain among the largest in the OECD over the projection period. Against this background and with the unemployment rate still high, inflation should fall slightly below the euro area average.

If the new government stands by its decision not to rely on one-off measures to curb the fiscal deficit, the 3% of GDP deficit limit would be overshot by a large margin in 2005 and 2006. This underlines the urgent need for consolidation measures, in the form of fundamental reforms rather than temporary fixes.

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