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2005 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2005 Issue 1

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2005 Issue 1

Presents OECD's assessment of the economic outlook to the end of 2006 for the OECD area and China, Brazil, and the Russian Federation.  It finds that Japan and the US have rebounded but that Europe is lacking in sustained momentum, and it carefully examines why. This issue of the OECD Economic Outlook also includes several medium-term scenarios projecting to 2010. The special chapter covers measuring and assessing underlying inflation.

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Norway

After a soft landing in 2003, growth of Mainland GDP bounced back, reaching 3½ per cent in 2004. Domestic demand gained momentum in the second half, fuelled by historically low real interest rates, favourable terms of trade and rising domestic confidence. Mainland growth is projected to accelerate in 2005 to 3¾ per cent, while slowing to a more sustainable 3% pace in 2006.

Fiscal credibility needs to be reinforced via stricter adherence to the fiscal guidelines, and a less expansionary macro policy stance is necessary to support long term sustainability objectives. In this respect, the spring debate about reforming pensions and labour market incentives will be crucial.

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