2005 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2005 Issue 1

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2005 Issue 1

Presents OECD's assessment of the economic outlook to the end of 2006 for the OECD area and China, Brazil, and the Russian Federation.  It finds that Japan and the US have rebounded but that Europe is lacking in sustained momentum, and it carefully examines why. This issue of the OECD Economic Outlook also includes several medium-term scenarios projecting to 2010. The special chapter covers measuring and assessing underlying inflation.

English Also available in: German, French


Economic growth turned negative at the end of 2004 and in the first quarter of 2005, interrupting the short and weak recovery that was underway. This slowdown reflected deteriorating net exports following the appreciation of the euro and depressed domestic demand in the first quarter of 2005. Following weakness in recent months, exports are projected to strengthen during 2005, leading to a more broadly based recovery and lifting growth to 1.7% in 2006. Employment, however, may only recover gradually, with the unemployment rate continuing to rise in 2005 but falling to 6.1% in 2006. Core inflation is expected to edge down further.

The government should complement the reforms stimulating labour supply with measures to reduce poverty traps in order to enhance employment prospects for low-skilled workers.

English Also available in: French

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