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2005 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2005 Issue 1

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2005 Issue 1

Presents OECD's assessment of the economic outlook to the end of 2006 for the OECD area and China, Brazil, and the Russian Federation.  It finds that Japan and the US have rebounded but that Europe is lacking in sustained momentum, and it carefully examines why. This issue of the OECD Economic Outlook also includes several medium-term scenarios projecting to 2010. The special chapter covers measuring and assessing underlying inflation.

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Luxembourg

GDP growth is projected to slow to 3.3% in 2005 owing to weaker exports but to recover to 4% in 2006 as both exports and domestic demand strengthen. Harmonised consumer price inflation in 2005 should be pushed up towards 3% because of the high weight of oil products but then it is expected to ease to less than 2% in 2006. Unemployment will come down a little, but most of the employment increase continues to come from abroad.

The growth recovery should be used to initiate structural reforms to put fiscal balances on a sustainable path, notably by reducing replacement rates in the very generous first pillar pension scheme.

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