Following strong growth during 2004, output is now slightly above potential. With tax cuts worth nearly 1% of GDP being phased in during 2005-06, and strengthening export demand, economic growth should be about 2¼ per cent in 2005 and 3% in 2006. Wage and price inflation will remain moderate because of the recent incomes policy agreement, but with a positive output gap inflationary pressures could rise when the agreement ends in 2007.

To curb inflationary pressures and ensure that employment expands swiftly, reforms to reduce early retirement and motivate active job search are needed. Rising municipal deficits must be brought under control through greater service efficiency and spending restraint to avoid excessive fiscal stimulus.