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2004 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2004 Issue 1

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2004 Issue 1

OECD's June 2004 assessment of economic developments and prospects.  In addition to the regular economic assessments and statistical information, this issue includes articles examining whether housing and mortgage market arrangements explain different degrees of economic resilience shown by OECD economies, through what mechanisms the US external deficit could adjust, to what extent stock market gyrations and one-off measures distort traditional measures of the fiscal stance, and how structural reform could enhance income convergence in Central European countries.

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New Zealand

The pace of activity is cooling as net migration inflows ease, house prices level off and the effects of the exchange rate appreciation spread from the export sector to the economy at large. Together, these factors will reduce pressures on stretched resources and close the output gap, bringing growth onto a more sustainable medium-term path. With the economy likely to head towards a soft landing, the current “wait and see” stance of monetary policy is appropriate, as is the broadly neutral stance of fiscal policy. With potential growth slowing because of weaker population growth, the policy initiatives currently being developed should aim at encouraging greater labour force participation, thus providing a helpful boost to medium-term growth prospects...

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