2004 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2004 Issue 1

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2004 Issue 1

OECD's June 2004 assessment of economic developments and prospects.  In addition to the regular economic assessments and statistical information, this issue includes articles examining whether housing and mortgage market arrangements explain different degrees of economic resilience shown by OECD economies, through what mechanisms the US external deficit could adjust, to what extent stock market gyrations and one-off measures distort traditional measures of the fiscal stance, and how structural reform could enhance income convergence in Central European countries.

English Also available in: French, German


The economy has finally emerged from recession and GDP growth began to pick up at the end of 2003. It should reach almost 1 per cent in 2004 and about 2 per cent in 2005, reflecting a revival in international trade and the end of a three-year fall in business investment. With much slack in the economy and an agreement to keep wage increases low, inflation should fall to less than 1 per cent in 2005. The government needs to strengthen work incentives by pushing ahead with planned social security reforms and should aim to raise productivity growth by strengthening entrepreneurship and competition, improving human capital and fostering innovation and research...

English Also available in: French

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