2004 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2004 Issue 1

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2004 Issue 1

OECD's June 2004 assessment of economic developments and prospects.  In addition to the regular economic assessments and statistical information, this issue includes articles examining whether housing and mortgage market arrangements explain different degrees of economic resilience shown by OECD economies, through what mechanisms the US external deficit could adjust, to what extent stock market gyrations and one-off measures distort traditional measures of the fiscal stance, and how structural reform could enhance income convergence in Central European countries.

English Also available in: French, German


GDP growth plummeted from almost 7 per cent in 2002 to 1½ per cent in 2003, but is set to recover to 3½ per cent in 2004 and 4½ per cent in 2005. With unemployment levelling off at 4¾ per cent and the appreciation of the euro feeding through, inflation is likely to remain subdued. Foreign direct investment is unlikely to be as strong as in the past, which reduces potential growth in the future. Policy should aim to safeguard cost competitiveness. Competition and regulatory policies need to be strengthened in the sheltered sectors to prevent renewed inflationary pressure...

English Also available in: French

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