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2004 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2004 Issue 1

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2004 Issue 1

OECD's June 2004 assessment of economic developments and prospects.  In addition to the regular economic assessments and statistical information, this issue includes articles examining whether housing and mortgage market arrangements explain different degrees of economic resilience shown by OECD economies, through what mechanisms the US external deficit could adjust, to what extent stock market gyrations and one-off measures distort traditional measures of the fiscal stance, and how structural reform could enhance income convergence in Central European countries.

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Czech Republic

Strong consumer spending underpinned a pick-up in growth to about 3 per cent in 2003. Growth is projected to rise progressively further to about 3½ per cent in 2005, due inter alia to strong exports as capacity based on foreign direct investment comes on stream. Layoffs from the still large number of domestic enterprises in need of restructuring will entail continuing net declines in employment this year, though it could stabilise in 2005 as new job creation picks up. The introduction of a legally binding multi-year budgetary framework focusing on output performance rather than financial inputs would help to achieve the intended fiscal consolidation. Monetary policy needs to stay vigilant and make sure that policy-related one-off price changes do not feed into inflationary expectations, by taking early action if necessary...

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