The economy expanded moderately in 2003, with output growth remaining somewhat below its potential rate. Prospects look brighter for 2004 and 2005, when external demand is projected to pick up and household spending and business investment to accelerate. While the immediate risk to inflation from the collective wage negotiations in spring 2004 has abated, the final agreements may end up reducing working hours, thereby restricting potential growth. Further stimulus through fiscal or monetary policy easing would not be warranted. The current structural surplus should be sustained and monetary policy tightened gradually as the expansion gathers steam...