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2003 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2003 Issue 2

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2003 Issue 2

This issue of the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major trends that will mark the next two years. It  covers the outlook to the end of 2005 and examines the economic policies required to foster high and sustainable growth in member countries. Developments in selected major non-OECD economies are also evaluated. Three analytical chapters look at fiscal policy and its influence on economic activity, fiscal relations across levels of government, and  crubing the growth in government spending and raising its  cost effectiveness.

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Portugal

Activity is estimated to have contracted in 2003, reflecting a further fall in private domestic demand and weak external markets. However, both have turned around from mid-year and a gradual recovery is projected for 2004 and 2005. The output gap will nevertheless remain large in 2005, and the unemployment rate high. In this context, the inflation differential vis-à-vis the euro area should continue to narrow. The recession brought a halt to the reduction in the fiscal deficit, despite continuing consolidation efforts. Continued forceful implementation of already-approved structural measures is essential to rein in public spending. Additional measures will be needed to reduce the structural deficit further over the medium term...

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