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2003 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2003 Issue 2

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2003 Issue 2

This issue of the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major trends that will mark the next two years. It  covers the outlook to the end of 2005 and examines the economic policies required to foster high and sustainable growth in member countries. Developments in selected major non-OECD economies are also evaluated. Three analytical chapters look at fiscal policy and its influence on economic activity, fiscal relations across levels of government, and  crubing the growth in government spending and raising its  cost effectiveness.

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New Zealand

Activity has been very strong over the past four years. Most recently, buoyancy due to immigration has outweighed the negative impulse from an appreciating exchange rate. This has left productive resources stretched. Rising house prices are providing further impetus to domestic demand. However, the pace of activity should soon cool to more normal rates of growth. The moderate headline inflation rate reflects the net outcome of falling import prices and high domestically-generated inflation. On current monetary policy settings, these factors are likely to continue balancing out and inflation should remain under control. The budget surplus has been surprisingly large, but the government should continue to exercise caution in raising expenditure until the evidence is clear that the revenue surprise is permanent...

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