A pick-up in exports to the United States is expected to be the main driver of a recovery which has been delayed by the weakness of the US manufacturing sector. The pace of activity is expected to  gain momentum as business investment starts to increase and employment to expand. Consumer price inflation is falling again and is likely to be on target at the end of the year. The Central Bank has shown its readiness to respond quickly to changes in the inflation outlook. Its current cautious monetary stance is appropriate. On the fiscal front, there is no room for slippage. The government needs to bring the public sector deficit into near balance, and the borrowing requirement down to about 2 per cent of GDP, by 2005. The approval of a strong tax package will be crucial for boosting investor confidence...