2003 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2003 Issue 2

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2003 Issue 2

This issue of the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major trends that will mark the next two years. It  covers the outlook to the end of 2005 and examines the economic policies required to foster high and sustainable growth in member countries. Developments in selected major non-OECD economies are also evaluated. Three analytical chapters look at fiscal policy and its influence on economic activity, fiscal relations across levels of government, and  crubing the growth in government spending and raising its  cost effectiveness.

English Also available in: German, French


GDP declined somewhat in the first half of 2003, reflecting a sharp fall in exports and weaker domestic demand. Data for the thrid quarter show a pick-up in activity. Considering the extent of the slowdown, unemployment has increased only moderately. At the same time, the August heatwave and administrative price hikes have brought an end to declining inflation. Overall, economic activity is projected to continue strengthening through 2004, with GDP increasing by some 2½ per cent in 2005. The draft budget for 2004 calls for a substantial tightening of fiscal policy, principally from slower expenditure growth. For this objective to be met, effective action will have to be taken to ensure that past slippages in the deficit will not be repeated. Over the medium-term a comprehensive reform of the healthcare system would help contain overall government spending...

English Also available in: French

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