2003 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2003 Issue 2

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2003 Issue 2

This issue of the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major trends that will mark the next two years. It  covers the outlook to the end of 2005 and examines the economic policies required to foster high and sustainable growth in member countries. Developments in selected major non-OECD economies are also evaluated. Three analytical chapters look at fiscal policy and its influence on economic activity, fiscal relations across levels of government, and  crubing the growth in government spending and raising its  cost effectiveness.

English Also available in: German, French

Fiscal Stance over the Cycle

The Role of Debt, Institutions, and Budget Constraints

This chapter describes the extent to which fiscal policy has been a stabilising or destabilising influence on economic activity in the OECD area over the last two decades, and investigates some of the institutional factors which may have led to the observed outcome. The concerns motivating the chapter relate to the fact that discretionary fiscal interventions may be pro-cyclical, as in the case of fiscal tightening during downturns especially. In part, this may be because of unsustainably high government indebtedness. But pro-cyclicality could also be due to implementation problems or to the institutional framework in which policies are designed and managed, including some rules-based approaches to fiscal stability, which may hamper the symmetrical operation of built-in stabilisers over the cycle.

English Also available in: French

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