2003 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2003 Issue 2

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2003 Issue 2

This issue of the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major trends that will mark the next two years. It  covers the outlook to the end of 2005 and examines the economic policies required to foster high and sustainable growth in member countries. Developments in selected major non-OECD economies are also evaluated. Three analytical chapters look at fiscal policy and its influence on economic activity, fiscal relations across levels of government, and  crubing the growth in government spending and raising its  cost effectiveness.

English Also available in: German, French


GDP fell slightly during the first half of 2003, despite a significant fiscal stimulus to public and private consumption. A pick-up in world trade is likely to contribute substantially to growth over the coming years and the current negative output gap should close by 2005. Tax cuts implemented in the summer and proposed for the 2004 budget will sustain demand but pose a challenge to the government’s objective of balancing central government finances by 2007. Cuts in labour taxes are welcome if accompanied by spending restraint, but further fiscal stimulus would risk being pro-cyclical, and make it more difficult to cope with the future fiscal implications of ageing...

English Also available in: French

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