OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2003 Issue 1
Twice a year, the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major trends that will mark the next two years. The present issue covers the outlook to the end of 2004 and examines the economic policies required to foster high and sustainable growth in member countries. Developments in selected major non-OECD economies are also evaluated.
In addition to the themes featured regularly, this issue contains five analytical chapters addressing the following questions: the telecommunications sector, sources of divergence in growth trends among the major economies, recent patterns and developments in foreign direct investment, and whether further trade and regulatory policy reforms would affect foreign direct investment flows and economic integration among OECD countries.
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With the lead sector of the economy, financial services, still in difficulty, GDP is expected to stagnate in 2003, under-performing the European Union for the third year in a row. More recently, conditions in domestically oriented sectors have also deteriorated. As a consequence, overall activity will not turn around before mid-2003, when the economy should benefit from a recovery of international financial services markets.
Government expenditures should be brought in line with lower trend GDP growth (3 to 4 per cent) as soon as possible to avoid a sustained deterioration in the budget balance, which would disrupt confidence.
Also available in: French
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