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2003 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2003 Issue 1

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2003 Issue 1

Twice a year, the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major trends that will mark the next two years. The present issue covers the outlook to the end of 2004 and examines the economic policies required to foster high and sustainable growth in member countries. Developments in selected major non-OECD economies are also evaluated.

In addition to the themes featured regularly, this issue contains five analytical chapters addressing the following questions: the telecommunications sector,  sources of divergence in growth trends among the major economies, recent patterns and developments in foreign direct investment,  and whether further trade and regulatory policy reforms would affect foreign direct investment flows and economic integration among OECD countries.

English French, German

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Hungary

Activity remained strong through 2002 in spite of the international slowdown, because of an exceptional electoral fiscal stimulus. A transition from fiscal to export-led growth will begin in 2003 but, because of important competitiveness losses and the delayed international recovery, GDP growth will ease somewhat before picking up in 2004.

The policy mix needs to be rebalanced. A credible medium-term public expenditure framework should be introduced to help consolidation. Monetary easing is welcome but should depend on the ability of the social partners to moderate wage growth consistent with inflation targets.

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