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2003 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2003 Issue 1

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2003 Issue 1

Twice a year, the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major trends that will mark the next two years. The present issue covers the outlook to the end of 2004 and examines the economic policies required to foster high and sustainable growth in member countries. Developments in selected major non-OECD economies are also evaluated.

In addition to the themes featured regularly, this issue contains five analytical chapters addressing the following questions: the telecommunications sector,  sources of divergence in growth trends among the major economies, recent patterns and developments in foreign direct investment,  and whether further trade and regulatory policy reforms would affect foreign direct investment flows and economic integration among OECD countries.

English French, German

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Finland

A recent deterioration in the international outlook suggests that last years' recovery may be stalled until the second half of 2003. Once world trade picks up, the rise in exports should lead both to a revival in investment and a closing of the output gap, although unemployment will remain above the euro area average.

The surge in government consumption, if sustained, is likely to endanger the previous government's fiscal targets, which are appropriate in the light of imminent budget pressures from an ageing population. It will also severely constrain any scope for much-needed cuts in the tax burden on labour, which are needed to address high structural unemployment.

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