2002 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2002 Issue 2

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2002 Issue 2

Twice a year, the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major trends that will mark the next two years. The present issue covers the outlook to the end of 2004 and examines the economic policies required to foster high and sustainable growth in member countries. Developments in selected major non-OECD economies are also evaluated in detail.

In addition to the themes featured regularly, this issue contains four analytical chapters addressing the following important questions: the deterioration in budgetary positions in most OECD countries, raising the labour force participation of older workers,  the benefits that OECD countries could achieve from undertaking reforms to promote product market competition, and inflation rates in some of the larger, slow-growing economies have not declined sufficiently to offset higher rates elsewhere in the euro area.

English Also available in: French, German


Output grew by only 0.6 per cent in the first half of this year. Although volatile, recent data suggest a recovery is under way. As a result, GDP growth is projected to continue to firm, reaching about 3 per cent in 2004. With unemployment at about 20 per cent of the labour force and a substantial output gap, inflation is expected to remain broadly stable in both 2003 and 2004.

Substantial reductions of nominal interest rates and the decline in the currency have eased monetary conditions, but policy remains tight and further cuts are required. In order to improve the policy mix, general government spending needs to be reduced as compared with the levels proposed in the 2003 draft Budget. Such a step also appears necessary to prevent debt levels from breaching constitutional limits.

English Also available in: French

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