The global recovery is slow and irregular, not unlike some earlier upturns. The seemingly encouraging start early in 2002 was partly of a technical nature, reflecting slower destocking, and momentum weakened in the second quarter. Nonetheless, considerable monetary and fiscal stimulus has been rapidly put in place. It clearly boosted public spending, consumption and housing investment in North America and some European economies through to mid-2002. Reinforced by monetary loosening later in the year, the effects of the stimulus will continue to feed through for some time. The apparent bottoming out of the information-technology downturn is also helping, as is the resilience of growth in most of Asia excluding Japan and in Russia. A fallback into recession is therefore improbable, even though greater geopolitical uncertainty and a further slide in world equity markets have been weighing on confidence in the second half of this year. Overall, OECD GDP growth will not exceed 1½ per cent in 2002 and a broad-based recovery is unlikely to emerge until current uncertainties dissipate, possibly well into 2003. Only in 2004 would the output gap start narrowing.