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2002 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2002 Issue 2

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2002 Issue 2

Twice a year, the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major trends that will mark the next two years. The present issue covers the outlook to the end of 2004 and examines the economic policies required to foster high and sustainable growth in member countries. Developments in selected major non-OECD economies are also evaluated in detail.

In addition to the themes featured regularly, this issue contains four analytical chapters addressing the following important questions: the deterioration in budgetary positions in most OECD countries, raising the labour force participation of older workers,  the benefits that OECD countries could achieve from undertaking reforms to promote product market competition, and inflation rates in some of the larger, slow-growing economies have not declined sufficiently to offset higher rates elsewhere in the euro area.

English French, German

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Canada

After recovering vigorously from last year’s mild downturn, economic activity in Canada seems to have maintained its momentum, in contrast to the United States. Employment growth has remained strong and is set to continue so, albeit at a slower pace. Although some signs of softening have recently appeared, partly connected to global uncertainties, the sustained expansion of consumer demand and a further pick-up of business investment should ensure that any moderation will be mild and short-lived, and growth should return to above potential rates some time next year.

The budget surplus has declined significantly and is expected to remain modest in coming years, leaving limited room for new spending. The monetary stance is still expansionary. With the economy already close to full capacity and core inflation near the top of the target range, a gradual but steady monetary tightening will be required to keep price pressures under control.

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