2002 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2002 Issue 2

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2002 Issue 2

Twice a year, the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major trends that will mark the next two years. The present issue covers the outlook to the end of 2004 and examines the economic policies required to foster high and sustainable growth in member countries. Developments in selected major non-OECD economies are also evaluated in detail.

In addition to the themes featured regularly, this issue contains four analytical chapters addressing the following important questions: the deterioration in budgetary positions in most OECD countries, raising the labour force participation of older workers,  the benefits that OECD countries could achieve from undertaking reforms to promote product market competition, and inflation rates in some of the larger, slow-growing economies have not declined sufficiently to offset higher rates elsewhere in the euro area.

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Economic growth is largely determined by international demand conditions and is likely to remain weak until early 2003. Thereafter growth is projected to pick up to 2¾ per cent in 2004 in line with a recovery of export markets. Underlying inflation is likely to fall to 1¾ per cent, reflecting lower increases in unit labour costs.

Fiscal policy has sought to offset the cyclical deterioration in the budget position and sustained consolidation will be required over the coming years to keep debt reduction on track.

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