2008 OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report March 2009

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report March 2009

This interim OECD Economic Outlook analyses the current crisis and examines the economic policies required to foster a sustained recovery in member countries. This issue covers the outlook to end-2010 for both OECD and major non‑OECD economies. A particular spotlight is put on fiscal policy in a special chapter entitled The Effectiveness and Scope of Fiscal Stimulus. It addresses the following issues: How  governments in OECD countries changed the stance of fiscal policy in response to the crisis and What is the scope for additional fiscal stimulus in OECD countries to cushion the recession and help the recovery.

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The current downturn is projected to be the most severe in Japan’s post-war history. In the wake of the global financial crisis, exports and business investment have plummeted, while the yen has appreciated substantially and equity prices have fallen by half. Output is projected to decline by around 6½ per cent in 2009, raising unemployment and pushing Japan back into deflation. A recovery in domestic demand from mid-2010 is expected to lift output growth into positive territory, although well below potential.

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