2008 OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report March 2009

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report March 2009

This interim OECD Economic Outlook analyses the current crisis and examines the economic policies required to foster a sustained recovery in member countries. This issue covers the outlook to end-2010 for both OECD and major non‑OECD economies. A particular spotlight is put on fiscal policy in a special chapter entitled The Effectiveness and Scope of Fiscal Stimulus. It addresses the following issues: How  governments in OECD countries changed the stance of fiscal policy in response to the crisis and What is the scope for additional fiscal stimulus in OECD countries to cushion the recession and help the recovery.

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The recession is projected to deepen in 2009 as investment falls sharply, export markets contract and uncertainty dampens consumer expenditure. Italy’s open economy and export product mix expose it to the full force of recession in other countries. The recovery is likely to be slow and unemployment will rise steeply this year and into 2010. Inflation will fall to near zero by the end of next year. The budget deficit will widen sharply reaching nearly 5% of GDP this year and 6% in 2010. 

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