1887

OECD Economics Department Working Papers

Working papers from the Economics Department of the OECD that cover the full range of the Department’s work including the economic situation, policy analysis and projections; fiscal policy, public expenditure and taxation; and structural issues including ageing, growth and productivity, migration, environment, human capital, housing, trade and investment, labour markets, regulatory reform, competition, health, and other issues.

The views expressed in these papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD or of the governments of its member countries.

English, French

New OECD Methods for Supply-side and Medium-term Assessments

A Capital Services Approach

The OECD makes frequent use of the supply-side framework and associated measures of factor productivity, productive potential and associated output gaps in the assessment of the short-term conjunctural situation, comparative economic performance and longer-term growth determinants. This paper describes a number of recent changes and improvements in the methods used in estimating potential output for OECD countries and the systems in which they are used, notably for the production of mediumterm economic scenarios. By and large, these reflect important changes and improvements in available statistical data sets, notably for measuring productive capital, as well as the development of more efficient model-based methods for making medium-term projections on a consistent international basis.

English

Keywords: macroeconomic modelling, production function, potential output, capital services, OECD, medium-term projections
JEL: F47: International Economics / Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance / Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; E22: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy / Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity; E27: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy / Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; E23: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy / Macroeconomics: Production; E32: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles / Business Fluctuations; Cycles; F17: International Economics / Trade / Trade: Forecasting and Simulation; C53: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / Econometric Modeling / Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
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