1887

OECD Economics Department Working Papers

Working papers from the Economics Department of the OECD that cover the full range of the Department’s work including the economic situation, policy analysis and projections; fiscal policy, public expenditure and taxation; and structural issues including ageing, growth and productivity, migration, environment, human capital, housing, trade and investment, labour markets, regulatory reform, competition, health, and other issues.

The views expressed in these papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD or of the governments of its member countries.

English, French

Mécanismes de transmission et effets macro-économiques de la politique monétaire en France

Les principaux enseignements économétriques

This paper considers the main transmission channels and macroeconomic effects of monetary policy in France over the last decade, as described by the structure and the simulation properties of contemporary econometric models. In particular the paper emphasizes: a) the larger role attributed by model-builders to interest rates as compared to financial quantity constraints; b) the inadequate consideration given to expectations in the modelling of the wage indexation process and international linkages (especially with respect to the EMS); and c) the significant impact of monetary policy on the real economy and the importance of the real output costs which result from disinflationary policy, at least in the short to medium run. Moreover, policy simulation with some models suggests that a sustained exogeneous rise in nominal interest rates under fixed exchange rates would have a stagflationary impact (lower output, higher prices) because of the assumption that firms, which are highly ...

French

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