This paper uses survey data in order to analyse and assess the empirical properties of consumers’ inflation expectations in the euro area and explores their role in explaining the observed dynamics of inflation. The probability approach is used to ...

Interest rates play a key role in free market economies. According to the Taylor rule, shortterm interest rates depend on deviations of the current inflation rate from a normative value and of the output gap. Given the difficulty of observing the ...

In this paper, we develop a likelihood approach for quantification of qualitative survey data on expectations and perceptions and we propose a new test for expectation consistency (unbiasedness). Our quantification scheme differs from existing ...

Methods for continuously monitoring business cycles are compared. A turn in a leading index can be used to predict a turn in the business cycle. Three likelihood based methods for turning point detection are compared in detail by using the theory of ...

The Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research regularly conducts business tendency surveys (BTS) amongst manufacturing firms. The information thus generated is available with a publication lead to the official Swiss sales, production, order and ...