OECD Economics Department Working Papers
Working papers from the Economics Department of the OECD that cover the full range of the Department’s work including the economic situation, policy analysis and projections; fiscal policy, public expenditure and taxation; and structural issues including ageing, growth and productivity, migration, environment, human capital, housing, trade and investment, labour markets, regulatory reform, competition, health, and other issues.
The views expressed in these papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD or of the governments of its member countries.
- ISSN: 18151973 (online)
- https://doi.org/10.1787/18151973
Globalisation and the Macroeconomic Policy Environment
This paper investigates the macroeconomic policy challenges associated with a prospective
continuation of international trade and financial integration over the next two decades, making use of a
global macroeconomic model newly developed by the OECD. The analysis has several important policy
implications. First, with the shares of non-OECD economies in world output, trade, and capital markets
rising substantially, global economic developments would become much more dependent on developments
in these economies than they used to be. Second, the sustainability of existing global current account
imbalances will depend in part on the future build-up and composition of international assets and
liabilities. While the imbalances could be sustainable for some time if economic integration continues at its
current pace, a slowdown of the globalisation process would raise the likelihood of a disruptive adjustment
in financial markets. Third, the increase in trade and financial linkages implies that macroeconomic shocks
in a given country or region have a larger impact on other economies in the future than they do today.
Policymakers in the OECD may have to act more promptly and more vigorously to economic 'shocks' in
the non-OECD economies in order to limit the impact on OECD economies.
Keywords: current account, growth, macroeconomic policies, globalisation
JEL:
F01: International Economics / General / Global Outlook;
F47: International Economics / Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance / Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications;
E60: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook / Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General;
E17: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / General Aggregative Models / General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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