OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis
- Discontinued
The Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis has been discontinued as of 24 June 2016. This journal was published jointly with CIRET from 2004 to 2015. For more information see www.ciret.org/jbcy.
- Semiannual
- ISSN: 19952899 (online)
- https://doi.org/10.1787/19952899
Euro area business cycles
The role of global, euro area and country-specific shocks in business cycle dynamics of six euro area member countries is assessed with the aid of SVAR models. Output fluctuations are driven by global shocks to a large extent in the euro area, and no Europeanisation of business cycles due to, for example the European Monetary Union, could be established. Business cycle heterogeneity is driven mainly by (asymmetric) country-specific shocks in the euro area and not by heterogeneous responses to common, particularly global, shocks. The cyclical disparity across the member economies is found to be small relative to the size of business cycles.
JEL classification: E32, C32, F00
Keywords: European Monetary Union, international business cycles, common and country-specific shocks, structural vector autoregression
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