OECD Economics Department Working Papers
Working papers from the Economics Department of the OECD that cover the full range of the Department’s work including the economic situation, policy analysis and projections; fiscal policy, public expenditure and taxation; and structural issues including ageing, growth and productivity, migration, environment, human capital, housing, trade and investment, labour markets, regulatory reform, competition, health, and other issues.
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- Forthcoming titles
- ISSN: 18151973 (online)
- https://doi.org/10.1787/18151973
Do Latin American Central Bankers Behave Non-Linearly?
The Experiences of Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico
This papers estimates unrestricted monetary reaction functions for four Latin American countries (Brazil,
Chile, Colombia and Mexico) and tests for the presence of non-linear effects in central bank behaviour.
The analysis covers the post-1999 inflation-targeting period. We deal with the presence of unit roots in the
data by estimating the policy rules in a co-integration setting. We test for linear and non-linear
co-integration among the variables of interest. The results suggest that a non-linear specification is not
rejected by the data for Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, but it is for Chile. Estimation of smooth-transition
models by NLLS and EN-NLLS suggests that the central bank’s response to the inflation gap
(i.e. deviations of expected inflation from the target) is invariant across policy regimes in Colombia. It
becomes stronger in Mexico as expected inflation deviates from the target. Policy responses appear to
weaken in Brazil as the inflation gap widens, a finding that most probably reflects a history of adverse
supply shocks and upward adjustments in targets in the early years of inflation targeting. Non-linearity is
also found in the central bank’s response to the exchange rate in Brazil and Colombia.
Keywords: non-linear co-integration, inflation targeting, smooth-transition model, reaction function
JEL:
C22: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / Single Equation Models; Single Variables / Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes;
E52: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit / Monetary Policy;
O54: Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth / Economywide Country Studies / Economywide Country Studies: Latin America; Caribbean
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