OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis

The Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis has been discontinued as of 24 June 2016. This journal was published jointly with CIRET from 2004 to 2015. For more information see www.ciret.org/jbcy.


Keywords: business tendency, economic measurement, economic statistics, cyclical indicators, business surveys, business cycles, economic research, business investment, consumer surveys, economic indicators, economic cycle, cyclical fluctuations, short-term, economic analysis

Dating rules for turning points of growth cycles in Korea

A business cycle is recognized as a growth cycle in a continuously growing economy such as Korea. This paper suggests reasonable dating rules for the reference date of a business cycle using various measures of a growth cycle. These measures are a cyclical component of the coincident composite index (CI), a coincident cumulative diffusion index, and a historical diffusion index with coincident component indicators. Dating rules include identifying turning points based on these measures of the growth cycle, and various approaches which confirm and review whether these turning points are appropriate for reference dates. And the dating rules are backed up by an administrative process to determine and disseminate these turning points as the reference dates of growth cycles in Korea. The process provides a strategy that gives authority to the released reference dates and minimises errorsin the dating. However, these dating rules have strict procedures to determine the reference date because the measures of a growth cycle are revised annually and their turning points could be affected by their revisions. Usually, a new reference date requires approximately three years before it is released officially. Due to the delayed dating strategy, the present and future business conditions need to be reviewed by detecting and forecasting models of the coming turning points with leading indexes and coincident indexes.


Keywords: Diffusion Index, Turning Point, Growth Cycle, Reference Date, Composite Index of Business Cycle Indicators
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