OECD Economics Department Working Papers
Working papers from the Economics Department of the OECD that cover the full range of the Department’s work including the economic situation, policy analysis and projections; fiscal policy, public expenditure and taxation; and structural issues including ageing, growth and productivity, migration, environment, human capital, housing, trade and investment, labour markets, regulatory reform, competition, health, and other issues.
The views expressed in these papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD or of the governments of its member countries.
- ISSN: 18151973 (online)
- https://doi.org/10.1787/18151973
Consolidating Macroeconomic Adjustment in Brazil
Brazil has made considerable progress in recent years towards consolidating macroeconomic stability, which is a key
framework condition for sustained growth. Monetary policy continues to respond swiftly to changes in the inflation
outlook, anchoring expectations. Fiscal policy has been guided by debt sustainability considerations, delivering
primary budget surpluses that have often exceeded the end-year targets. Nevertheless, while the public debt-to-GDP
has been reduced, it remains high, especially in comparison with other emerging-market economies. Brazil?s
overarching macroeconomic challenge is therefore to continue to reduce the public debt overhang while improving
the quality of fiscal adjustment, which has so far been underpinned by revenue hikes, rather than a retrenchment of
expenditure commitments. To do so, measures will need to be taken to arrest the increase in current spending,
especially on pensions, paving the way for subsequently removing distortions and reducing the tax burden over the
medium to longer term, once the debt-to-GDP ratio has been reduced in a sustainable manner. The favourable
domestic macroeconomic environment, with falling inflation and improving growth prospects, appears propitious for
reform towards the gradual phasing-out of directed credit and a reduction in compulsory reserve requirements.
Keywords: credit, inflation target, fiscal adjustment, public debt
JEL:
E50: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit / Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General;
E60: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook / Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General;
E30: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles / Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General
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