1887

OECD Economics Department Working Papers

Working papers from the Economics Department of the OECD that cover the full range of the Department’s work including the economic situation, policy analysis and projections; fiscal policy, public expenditure and taxation; and structural issues including ageing, growth and productivity, migration, environment, human capital, housing, trade and investment, labour markets, regulatory reform, competition, health, and other issues.

The views expressed in these papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD or of the governments of its member countries.

English, French

China's March to Prosperity

Reforms to Avoid the Middle-income Trap

China is well-placed to avoid the so-called “middle-income trap” and to continue to converge towards the more advanced economies, even though growth is likely to slow from near double-digit rates in the first decade of this millennium to around 7% at the 2020 horizon. However, in order to sustain vigorous growth and improve the well-being of most citizens, renewed reform momentum is required in a number of areas. The following ones are discussed in this paper: financial sector liberalisation; strengthening competition in markets for goods and services; education, research and innovation. Progress is also needed in other areas, notably in fostering more socially-inclusive forms of urbanisation and more environmentally-friendly growth.

English

Keywords: living standards, credit, financial sector, economic growth, China, development, competition, shadow banking, renminbi, research and development, investment, foreign exchange, international migration, catching-up, education, innovation, business climate, productivity, patents, intellectual property rights, convergence, urbanisation, cities
JEL: O19: Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth / Economic Development / International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations; O53: Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth / Economywide Country Studies / Economywide Country Studies: Asia including Middle East; O14: Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth / Economic Development / Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology; O24: Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth / Development Planning and Policy / Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy; I25: Health, Education, and Welfare / Education and Research Institutions / Education and Economic Development; O38: Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth / Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights / Technological Change: Government Policy; N15: Economic History / Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations / Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations: Asia including Middle East; F63: International Economics / Economic Impacts of Globalization / Economic Impacts of Globalization: Economic Development; E24: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy / Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity; O34: Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth / Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights / Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital; J21: Labor and Demographic Economics / Demand and Supply of Labor / Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure; J61: Labor and Demographic Economics / Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers / Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers; G23: Financial Economics / Financial Institutions and Services / Pension Funds; Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors; E22: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy / Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity; O16: Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth / Economic Development / Economic Development: Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance; F32: International Economics / International Finance / Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements; F65: International Economics / Economic Impacts of Globalization / Economic Impacts of Globalization: Finance; E42: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Money and Interest Rates / Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems; E27: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy / Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; E23: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy / Macroeconomics: Production; J24: Labor and Demographic Economics / Demand and Supply of Labor / Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity; J11: Labor and Demographic Economics / Demographic Economics / Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts; O31: Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth / Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights / Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives; O47: Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth / Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity / Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence; F23: International Economics / International Factor Movements and International Business / Multinational Firms; International Business; D61: Microeconomics / Welfare Economics / Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis; N35: Economic History / Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy / Economic History: Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy: Asia including Middle East; F21: International Economics / International Factor Movements and International Business / International Investment; Long-term Capital Movements; O11: Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth / Economic Development / Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development; E44: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Money and Interest Rates / Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy; O15: Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth / Economic Development / Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration; E52: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit / Monetary Policy; F31: International Economics / International Finance / Foreign Exchange; P21: Economic Systems / Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies / Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Planning, Coordination, and Reform; N25: Economic History / Financial Markets and Institutions / Economic History: Financial Markets and Institutions: Asia including Middle East; O32: Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth / Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights / Management of Technological Innovation and R&D; G28: Financial Economics / Financial Institutions and Services / Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation; F43: International Economics / Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance / Economic Growth of Open Economies; E20: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy / Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy: General (includes Measurement and Data)
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