Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis

The Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis has been discontinued as of 24 June 2016. This journal was published jointly with CIRET from 2004 to 2015. For more information see www.ciret.org/jbcy.


Business Cycles in the New EU Member Countries and their Conformity with the Euro Area

We analyse the evolution of the business cycle in the new EU member countries, after a careful examination of the seasonal properties of the available series and the required modification of the cycle dating procedures. We then focus on the degree of cyclical concordance within the group of new EU member countries, which turns out to be in general lower than that between the EU-15 countries (the Baltic countries constitute an exception). With respect to the euro area, the indications of synchronization are also generally low and lower relative to the position obtaining for countries taking part in previous enlargements (with the exceptions of Poland, Slovenia and Hungary).


Keywords: Business cycles, Seasonal adjustment, Dating algorithms, Cycle synchronization, EU enlargement
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