The Geography of Conflict in North and West Africa
African governments are increasingly confronted with new forms of political violence. The situation is particularly worrying in the Sahara-Sahel where violence is on the rise. This degrading security situation has prompted African countries and their partners to intervene militarily to stabilise the region and to prevent the spread of extremism and violence against civilians. However, these initiatives face many obstacles due to the transnational nature and geography of violence. Tensions regionalise across state borders when armed groups, defeated by counter-insurgency efforts, relocate to other countries. This study maps the evolution of violence across North and West Africa, with a particular focus on Mali, Lake Chad and Libya. In the regions experiencing the highest levels of political insecurity, it identifies whether and how conflicts tend to cluster or spread, potentially across national borders. The work is based on a new spatial indicator of political violence designed to assess the long-term evolution of conflicts and provide policy options.
Also available in: French
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Mapping political violence in North and West Africa
Chapter 3 shows that political violence is very unequally distributed in North and West Africa. In order to better understand the geography of conflicts in the region, the chapter develops a new spatial indicator of violence, called the Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi), that examines the intensity and concentration of violent events. The indicator highlights which regions experience the most conflicts, how conflicts change geographically over time, and how military interventions affect the geography of conflicts. The analysis of the evolution of political violence is conducted at the regional level (North and West Africa) and through three case studies (Mali and Central Sahel, Lake Chad, Libya). It leverages political event data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project (ACLED) that catalogues violent extremist incidents in Africa since 1997.
Also available in: French
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Click to download PDF - 3.38MBPDF