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States of Fragility 2016

Understanding Violence

image of States of Fragility 2016

The world is getting more violent, and violence is occurring in surprising places. Over the past 15 years, 3.34 billion people, or almost half of the world’s population, have been affected by violence. The number of violent conflicts is decreasing, but conflicts are killing more people: conflict-related deaths have tripled since 2003. Violent extremism and terrorism are also on the rise. The economic cost of violence is rising too: the global economic impact of violence is a staggering USD 13.6 trillion, equivalent to 13.3% of Global GDP. And civilians, especially children and women, are most at risk.

States of Fragility 2016: Understanding Violence takes a long hard look at violence in the world – and what we should do about it. The report showcases emerging thinking about violence, presents a new risk-based approach to monitoring various dimensions of fragility, and looks at financial flows in support of fragile contexts. Understanding Violence finds that development, peace and security efforts in the developing world have not kept pace with the new reality of violence. We need to dedicate more resources and attention to violence. And to be effective, we need to put people – especially youth – at the centre of our efforts.

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The OECD fragility framework

This chapter outlines the OECD’s multidimensional fragility framework, and reviews the results for 2016. After a brief discussion of the background to the framework, and the consultative process undertaken, the chapter outlines the purpose and intended use of the fragility framework. Next is a discussion of the dimensions of fragility – economic, environmental, political, security and societal – and an overview of the methodology involved in the calculations, with cautions over data constraints. The 2016 results, those 56 contexts identified as fragile or extremely fragile on the basis of a synthesis of results in the 5 dimensions, are presented. Following on from this, the chapter looks at the group of 56 in terms of population, regional clustering, macroeconomic conditions (GDP, inflation, poverty and extreme poverty), and in relation to urbanisation rates. Together, this overview provides a snapshot of fragility in the world today.

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