Social Protection in East Africa

Harnessing the Future

image of Social Protection in East Africa

This strategic foresight report assesses the interaction between demographics, economic development, climate change and social protection in six countries in East Africa between now and 2065: Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia. The report combines population projections with trends in health, urbanisation, migration and climate change and identifies the implications for economic development and poverty. It concludes by identifying policies to address seven grand challenges for social protection planners in national governments and donor agencies which emerge from the projections. These include: eliminating extreme poverty; extending social insurance in a context of high informality; the rapid growth of the working-age population, in particular the youth; adapting social protection to urban settings; protecting the poor from the effects of climate change; harnessing a demographic dividend; and substantially increasing funding for social protection.



Foreword and acknowledgements

OECD Development Centre

The African Union’s Agenda 2063 framework reaffirms the centrality of social protection in Africa’s strategy for eradicating poverty and ensuring sustainable and equitable development. Yet a number of emerging demographic, economic and environmental trends jeopardise human well-being and challenge Africa’s vision for social protection. The genesis of this report lies in the growing realisation that the considerable livelihood threats which lie ahead are unique opportunities for policy makers to shape the future of social protection in the continent in a way that will also foster Africa’s broader development path.


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