Social Protection in East Africa

Harnessing the Future

image of Social Protection in East Africa

This strategic foresight report assesses the interaction between demographics, economic development, climate change and social protection in six countries in East Africa between now and 2065: Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia. The report combines population projections with trends in health, urbanisation, migration and climate change and identifies the implications for economic development and poverty. It concludes by identifying policies to address seven grand challenges for social protection planners in national governments and donor agencies which emerge from the projections. These include: eliminating extreme poverty; extending social insurance in a context of high informality; the rapid growth of the working-age population, in particular the youth; adapting social protection to urban settings; protecting the poor from the effects of climate change; harnessing a demographic dividend; and substantially increasing funding for social protection.



Forecasting economic and social trends for long-term social protection planning

OECD Development Centre

Identifying how Africa’s population boom will interact with key socio-economic trends is crucial to understanding the evolving needs for social protection and the context within which it will operate. This chapter forecasts economic and social trends of key interest to social protection planners in the sample countries. It estimates the rate at which these economies and their per capita incomes will grow, as well as the impact this growth will have on poverty. It also projects the structure of the economy and the labour force in order to show how workers are likely to be employed over the next 50 years.


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