Social Protection in East Africa

Harnessing the Future

image of Social Protection in East Africa

This strategic foresight report assesses the interaction between demographics, economic development, climate change and social protection in six countries in East Africa between now and 2065: Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia. The report combines population projections with trends in health, urbanisation, migration and climate change and identifies the implications for economic development and poverty. It concludes by identifying policies to address seven grand challenges for social protection planners in national governments and donor agencies which emerge from the projections. These include: eliminating extreme poverty; extending social insurance in a context of high informality; the rapid growth of the working-age population, in particular the youth; adapting social protection to urban settings; protecting the poor from the effects of climate change; harnessing a demographic dividend; and substantially increasing funding for social protection.



Assessment and recommendations

OECD Development Centre

The 21st century has been a period of great achievement for most countries in Africa. Sustained and robust economic growth and greater political stability across the region have accompanied a significant decline in poverty and major improvements in living standards. According to the World Bank, the proportion of people living in extreme poverty fell from 57% in 1990 to 43% in 2012, while the rate of mortality among children under 5 has almost halved, from 173 per 1 000 live births in 1995 to 92 in 2013. Net primary school enrolment rose from 59% in 1999 to 79% in 2012.


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