Reconciling Development and Environmental Goals

Measuring the Impact of Policies

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Policy coherence is increasingly in the interest of OECD countries and developing countries alike, given their growing economic, social and environmental interdependence. This report presents scenarios showing numerical results of changes to individual policies as well as policy packages implemented simultaneously by OECD and developing countries. The results can be used to anticipate the outcomes of decisions and implement the appropriate set of policies. The scenarios also show how policy combinations could substantially improve both economic and environmental outcomes together, confirming the need for policy coherence. 



Development Implications of the Baseline Scenario of the OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030

The modelling framework used for the OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030 (EO) comprises the ENV-Linkages computable general equilibrium model coupled with the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) developed at MNP, the TIMER energy model, and a GTAP agricultural-economy model developed at the Agricultural Economics Institute of the Netherlands. Basically macroeconomic variables from ENVLinkages and population variables from the United Nations 2004 Medium Variant projections are inputs to the other models. There is no feedback from the MNP suite of environmental models to the macroeconomic ENVLinkages model. In the baseline, modest improvements in environmental policies in developing countries and equipment modernisation entailing greater use of less-polluting technologies are assumed to lead to some reductions in emission coefficients over time.


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