Perspectives on Global Development 2017

International Migration in a Shifting World

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Perspectives on Global Development 2017 presents an overview of the shifting of economic activity to developing countries and examines whether this shift has led to an increase in international migration towards developing countries. The report focuses on the latest data on migration between 1995 and 2015, and uses a new three-way categorisation of countries. It describes the recent evolution of migration overall as well as by groups of countries according to their growth performance.It analyses what drives these trends and also studies the special case of refugees. It examines the impact on migration of migration policies as well as various sectoral policies in developing countries of origin as well as of destination, and studies the impact of migration on these countries. The report also develops four illustrative future scenarios of migration in 2030 and recommends policies that can help improve the benefits of migration for origin and destination countries, as well as for migrants. Better data, more research and evidence-based policy action are needed to prepare for expected increases in the number of migrants from developing countries. More needs to be done to avoid situations that lead to refugee spikes as well as to foster sustainable development.

English Also available in: French

Four possible scenarios for international migration in 2030

OECD Development Centre

History can teach the world about international migration in the past. But what about the future and specifically the next 15 years? This chapter presents four future scenarios for international migration. The first scenario extends the trends that are already evident today, such as slowing growth in developing economies. The second presents a more positive vision of where the world could be in 2030, using the Sustainable Development Goals as inspiration. The third scenario imagines the consequences of a global shock in the form of a financial crisis, and reveals a world in which global co-operation is effectively addressing the challenges. The final scenario shows what could happen if global co-operation deteriorates in a context of rapid automation and economic divergence. The chapter concludes by drawing lessons from the scenarios and asks what can be done to avoid the scenarios’ negative aspects and advance towards the more positive aspects.



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