Latin American Economic Outlook 2010

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Contrary to prevailing wisdom, Latin American countries that opened their markets to international competition during the last decade have not been more vulnerable to the global economic downturn. The OECD Latin American Economic Outlook 2010 provides a fresh analysis of economic trends in the region with a particular focus on the role that international migration and remittances play in shaping the current context.

“Among the most interesting surprises by the global economic crisis: so far its impact on Latin America has been less than anticipated. This OECD report offers a clear analysis of the factors that explain this phenomenon.” Moisés Naim, Editor in Chief, Foreign Policy

“This essential study shows that countries open to the international economy with serious fiscal and monetary policies were better prepared to confront this crisis. The reprot also explains, with realistic analysis, why why migration policies belong on the international agenda.” Ricardo Lagos,former President of Chile

“This volume suggests that migration can help the development process provided that some interventions are adopted both in the sender and recipient countries.” Mauricio Cárdenas, Senior Fellow and Director of the Latin America Initiative, Brookings Institution

“Policy makers, academics and others interested in Latin American will find here a serious and relevant contribution to advancing their own work.” Santiago Levy,Vice President for Sectors and Knowledge, Inter-American Development Bank

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Executive Summary

OECD Development Centre

Latin America has not escaped the global economic crisis, but it has stood up to it with a new resilience. Every country in the region has suffered the effects of the downturn and overall gross domestic product is expected to shrink 3.6% in 2009. However, it is already apparent that Latin America is rebounding from the shock more rapidly than the majority of developed economies. Most importantly, it is doing so without compromising its significant progress towards its long-term development goals. The rate of recovery is expected to be substantial in 2010, even if short of the typical growth rates of over 5% that characterised the bonanza of 2004-08. The duration of the global recession will be only one factor in determining future growth rates and at least as important for each country will be its capacity to stimulate its economy through sustainable policy efforts. In many countries, moreover, changing patterns of international migration and remittances will also affect the depth of the crisis and the menu of available policy options.

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